Drought Risk Management in Agriculture: Case for Zimbabwe

Leonard Unganai, UNDP/GEF: Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project, Environmental Management Agency, Zimbabwe, [email protected]

Inter-annual and intra-seasonal climate variability are major sources of production risk in rainfed agriculture production systems of semi-arid regions in Zimbabwe. Drought is arguably the most important source of production risk in the country and has major impacts on rural livelihoods. It has been argued that, unless concrete steps are taken to integrate climate risk management and enhance the resilience of rainfed agriculture, climate change will intensify already adverse conditions of crop and livestock productivity. Several predictions suggest possible crop yield losses of 20-50% by 2050 across most of Sub-Saharan Africa because of climate change.  This paper presents different risks posed by drought in rainfed agriculture production systems in semi-arid areas of southeast Zimbabwe and discusses various strategies that have been adopted by rural farmers in Chiredzi District to proactively manage risks as well as cope with the risk after it has been realised. 

The paper is based mostly on work done under the UNDP/GEF supported project, “Coping with Drought and Climate Change”, implemented through the Environmental Management Agency over the period 2008-2012.

The Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project

The Coping with Drought and Climate Change project was developed by UNDP and the Government of Zimbabwe in 2004. This project sought to develop and pilot a range of long-term adaptation measures in the agriculture sector to reduce the vulnerability of small-holder farmers and pastoralists in rural areas to current and future climate change related shocks, particularly drought. The project was piloted in Chiredzi District located in the semi-arid south-eastern section of Zimbabwe. Community participatory climate risk analysis revealed that drought was the most important climatic hazard affecting rural livelihoods in Chiredzi District. Statistics from the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database show that drought affected nearly 6 million people nationally in 2001. Recognising the importance of drought as a barrier to successful crop and livestock production in the district, the project worked with about 2000 households to evaluate a number of risk management strategies. The strategies fall into two categories: those that can be put in place before drought onset and those during and after a drought risk has been realised.

Smallholder farmers in Chiredzi District are exposed to one of the harshest climates of Zimbabwe. In this region, rainfall is too low (generally below 450 mm per annum) and erratic for meaningful production of any crop under rain-fed conditions. The District generally experiences one good agricultural season in 5-6 years. This rainfall pattern is projected to become more severe, increasing in variability and extreme events in the future.  As it is, farmers currently face a number of risks in their operations, including production, marketing, finance, policy and human risk. The majority of crop failures in Zimbabwe are associated with either a lack of, or excess rainfall. Climate variability is also greatly associated with marketing risks. Unanticipated forces, such as inclement weather, drought conditions, crop failure or bumper harvests, or pest/disease outbreak, can lead to dramatic changes in crop and livestock prices.

Risk Reduction Strategies

Despite evidence of heavy risks of drought, Zimbabwe is yet to come up with an integrated climate risk management framework for vulnerable sectors and sections of society, particularly semi-arid regions. Because of the inherent dryness of Chiredzi District, farmers have evolved a number of risk reduction strategies over the years through trial and error. Some of these proactive drought risk management strategies include the use of drought tolerant crops and crop varieties (sorghum is the most widely grown crop in Chiredzi District because of its drought tolerance); early planting to escape late season drought; the use staggered planting dates; reducing planting density to maximise the limited soil moisture; diversified cropping and using different land types; and, keeping cereal stocks that can last two years or more.

The Coping with Drought and Climate Change  project built on some of these existing strategies, but also promoted various soil moisture conservation techniques, helped farmers to increase the diversity of their crops, and established the use of tailored climate early warning systems to improve risk management. Reducing plant density, soil moisture conservation and optimising the timing of planting were among the most widely adopted drought risk management strategies among rural farmers in Chiredzi District due to their effectiveness at reducing impacts of drought and their cost-effectiveness.

In the case of livestock in Chiredzi District, farmers usually act only after the impacts of drought become visible. During times of drought, when crops have failed and livestock get into a desperate state, a number of actors spring into action from the household to the international level, depending on the severity of the situation. Evidence from Chiredzi District showed that at the household level, farmers may do one or a combination of the following: replant with earlier maturing crop varieties (in the case of early season drought); increase weed management; delay or avoid use of inorganic fertilisers (when a mid-season drought strikes); sell some livestock to buy or barter for grain; seek off farm employment; exploit soil networks; seek income from remittances or ecosystem services such as wild fruits/animals. To keep livestock alive during a drought, farmers may use commercially bought feed stocks and drought survival rations of feed from the government or other organizations acting in the country, and famers may also graze animals early in the morning and for longer hours. It is believed that the palatability of pastures increases when soaked with early morning dew. Government, civil society organisations, private sector and international donors also come up with a range of interventions in response to impacts of drought. Such interventions include: food relief, drilling boreholes to improve water supplies, livelihoods support programmes and the development of irrigation schemes.

Conclusions

Drought is a slow onset disaster which requires proactive risk management strategies to address the problem on a long-term basis. An integrated response which seeks to understand past successful efforts to reduce drought risk through integration of social, economic, scientific and technological research and action should result in more effective drought risk management. Governments need to be encouraged to ensure that drought management plans are in place at local levels with appropriate institutional and legal structures for long-term drought risk management.