Climate Change

Climate change is becoming a source of significant additional risks for agriculture and food systems. Climate projections suggest that impacts will include shifting average growing conditions, increase climate and weather variability, and more uncertainty in predicting tomorrow’s climate and weather conditions. Agricultural risk management (ARM) is ideally placed to support stakeholders in building resilience to these increased risks in short and medium term.

A climate change risk assessment must consider at least three areas: the future pathway of global emissions; the direct risks arising from the climate’s response to those emissions; and the risks arising from the interaction of climate change with complex human systems. Each of these areas contains large uncertainties. From our assessment, we draw the following conclusions about the most significant risks.

According to the most recent IPCC report, changes in climates over the last 30 years have already reduced global agricultural production in the range 1-5 % per decade globally, with particularly negative effects for tropical cereal crops such as maize and rice (Porter et al., 2014). In addition, there is now mounting evidence suggesting that even at low (+2 ºC) levels of warming, agricultural productivity is likely to decline across the globe, but particularly across tropical areas (Challinor et al., 2014).

Nearly a quarter of damages wrought by natural disasters on the developing world are borne by the agricultural sector according to initial results from a new FAO study released at the 2015 UN World Conference for Disaster Risk Reduction. Twenty-two percent of all damages inflicted by natural hazards such as drought, floods storms or tsunamis are registered within the agriculture sector, FAO's analysis of 78 post-disaster needs assessments in 48 developing countries spanning the 2003-2013 period shows. These damages and losses are often incurred by poor

Document: 

FAOa-i4434e.pdf

This paper scoped three pilot models of weather index-based insurance (WII) that are initiated separately by both the private sector and by PCIC (as part of ILO-supported project on innovative agricultural financing). The early experiences of different stakeholders who have piloted and implemented WII in the country have shown that it can be an effective risk transfer instrument that can complement other proactive climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies.

Document: 

iCSC_Weather-Indexed-Insurance_Braving-the-Uncerntainties.pdf

Le changement climatique a le potentiel d’exacerber les conflits, de provoquer des crises humanitaires, de déplacer des populations, de détruire des moyens de subsistance et de faire reculer le développement et la lutte contre la pauvreté au détriment de millions d’êtres humains à travers la planète.

Document: 

GESTION DURABLE DES ZONES HUMIDES FACE AUX RISQUES CLIMATIQUES AU NIGER - LE CAS DE LA MARE DE TABALAK.pdf

Niger's wetlands are critical to poverty reduction, food security and biodiversity conservation, especially given the limited the irregular rainfall and the amount of land suitable for agriculture. La Mare de Tabalak, a wetland in the arid zone of Niger, and its inhabitants are already dealing with the cumulative effects of recurring droughts, a trend expected to increase with climate change.

Document: 

IISD SUSTAINABLE WETLAND MANAGEMENT IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE RISKS IN NIGER- THE CASE OF LA MARE DE TABALAK.pdf

This training of trainers' manual helps cooperative members identify the main climate risks that can hamper their cooperative's performance and identify solutions to minimize and, if possible, take advantage of these risks. It primarily targets NGO staff and local government officials working with agricultural cooperatives in Rwanda, but it can also be used in other contexts where farmers' associations and local cooperatives are involved in value addition of agricultural products.  

Document: 

rwanda_tot_manual.pdf

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15◦C to 32◦C, including experiments with artificial heating.

Document: 

Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production S. Asseng et al.pdf

Food security is highly sensitive to climate risks in Senegal. Recent climate-related events, specifically the 2011/2012 drought, have highlighted the impact of droughts and floods on food production, access to markets, and livelihoods. However, the ways in which specific vulnerabilities are linked to climate have not been well studied. The purpose of this analysis was to quantitavely and qualitatively assess climate impacts (climate variability, change, and extremes) on food security and livelihoods.

Document: 

Climate risk and food security in Senegal- Analysis of climate impacts on food security and livelihoods.pdf