Risk analysis

Risk analysis is complex subject that is best learned by actual experience. This manual will assist national competent authorities and others involved in the assessment and management of risks associated with the international or domestic moment of live aquatic animals in training professional staff and raising awareness and understanding among other stakeholders of the principles and methodology of risk analysis. Using the training course manual and the recommended supplementary materials, responsible managers will be able to train staff in the planning and supervision of risk analyses.

This Briefing considers the question: "What is the risk of re-introduction of HPAI H5N1 virus into Ghana from neighboring countries (Burkina Faso, C??te d???Ivoire and Togo) via cross-border trade and movements involving live birds, poultry products, people and fomites?" A high level of uncertainty associated with the risk estimates developed in this work points to significant gaps in the knowledge of the epidemiology of HPAI in West Africa.

This brief is a synopsis of five country background papers that provided an inventory of information about the importance of the poultry sector in the economy and for rural livelihoods, the structure of the poultry sector and the associated level of biosecurity, and the threats and incidences of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), along with prevention and control measures that were implemented and the institutional response capacity. The countries investigated were Ethiopia, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, and Nigeria.

This brief suggests that although income from poultry production is affected significantly by supply and demand shocks, effects on household income are limited due to the low share of poultry in households??? total income. Poultry-related supply and demand shocks, however, can result in income effects beyond poultry production through changes in incomes from maize and other food crops, and from labor involved in the poultry supply chain.

This brief summarizes the methodology used to produce HPAI risk maps for continental Africa and Indonesia, and the findings.

The objective of this study was to describe the spatial variation in the likelihood of (i) introduction and (ii) spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 on a continental scale in Africa. This report describes the methods used to produce likelihood maps illustrating the likelihood of introduction and subsequent spread of HPAIV H5N1 at both the continental and country level (Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Ghana; targeted countries of the DfID project), and highlights limitations associated with the maps.

The potential impact of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in Ethiopia is assessed, specifically on the country???s poultry and associated sectors. Ethiopia has not yet experienced an HPAI outbreak but has experienced a scare. An HPAI outbreak would cause a supply and demand shock to the poultry sector.

This brief summarizes research findings on smallholder poultry
supply chains in three regions of Thailand. Modelled on similar
research undertaken in other Mekong countries, this research
combined an assessment of local market chains with an
evaluation of household poultry purchasing preferences.

The research findings highlight two general domains of policy
recommendations. The first relates to farmers??? market
incentives with regard to disease risk mitigation strategies.